进出口视角下汇率对失业影响的效应研究

Study of Influence Effect of Exchange Rate on Unemployment from the Perspective of Import-Export

选取1992年～2009年G20国家中15个国家的进出口、汇率和失业率等数据,运用面板协整方法研究汇率对失业的直接影响,以及进口和出口两个渠道对失业产生的间接影响,结果表明,汇率对失业率的直接影响效应不显著,通过出口和进口渠道对失业率产生的间接影响也较小,但出口和失业率存在反向关系,扩大出口能降低失业率;进口和失业率也存在反向关系,进口贸易额的扩大能使失业率降低。

By choosing data of import-export, official real exchange rate and unemployment of 15 countries from G20, this paper uses panel cointegration method to study direct effect of exchange rate on unemployment and also its indirect effect on unemployment through import and export channels. Result shows that the direct effect is insignificant and indirect effect through import and export channels is also small, and there exists an inverse relationship between export and unemployment which means export expansion can lower unemployment, and there exists an inverse relationship between import and unemployment which means import expansion can lower unemployment.