道光萧条刍议——以粮价数据为中心

Discussionon Daoguang Depression:Centered with National Rice Price

本文通过对当下关于道光萧条争论的梳理,并整理了生活在道光朝的人们对道光萧条的看法。笔者分析了道光朝全国各地的粮价走势,发现其总体趋势是下降的,认为道光萧条确实存在。在道光朝,中国的人口到达了4.5亿的峰值,对货币的需求不断增加,但是国内白银产量急剧下降,同时出现了白银外流,遂导致银贵和货币的供给不足。这就是道光萧条的原因。

This paper summarizes the current debates about Daoguan Depression and the opinions on the depression of the people living in the Daoguang times as well.The author analyzes the rice price all over the country at the Daoguang times and finds out the general trend of price was downwards.Thus,Daoguan Depression exactly happened at that time.Chinese population reached the peak of 450 million in the Daoguang dynasty,which needed more and more money to be issued.However,the sharp decline of domestic silver production and the outflow of silver at same time led to the rise of silver price and the shortage of currency.That＇s the fundamental reason for Daoguang Depression.