基于区间估计的地铁施工安全风险评价指标筛选

Study on Index System of Safety Risk Evaluation for Subway Construction Based on Interval Estimation

地铁施工安全风险评价指标体系的建立是进行安全风险评价的核心内容,并直接影响评价结果的准确性。本文在比较研究了评价指标体系筛选方法及对其适用性进行分析的基础上,构建了层次分析区间估计方法的地铁施工安全风险评价指标筛选理论模型。通过对近10年来我国地铁施工过程中发生的事故类型的分近,对事故发生的风险源进行了重点分析,进而建立了施工安全风险的初始指标。并结合运用模型对哈尔滨地铁一号线一期6标段的施工安全风险评价问题进行了实际验证,本研究为施工企业评价施工现场安全风险,提高安全管理能力提供了新思路。

Establishment of index system is key to safety risk evaluation for subway construction, whether the selection of indexes is reasonable directly determines the accuracy of evaluation. This paper studies the usual methods of selecting indexes for evaluation and analyzes their applicability. Based on analytic hierarchy process interval estimation, the theo- ry model of index selection for safety risk evaluation for subway construction is set up. Given the types of accidents hap- pened during last 10 years in China, original index system of safety risk evaluation is established mainly according to sources of safety risks in accidents. At last, this paper takes the sixth part of Harbin Subway Line NO. 1 as an example and selects the indexes for its safety risk evaluation, which provides a new method for construction company managers to evaluate safety risk during construction and to improve their ability of safety management.