我国建筑业碳排放预测研究

Carbon Emissions Prediction Study in China's Construction Industry

由于建筑业的快速发展和能耗较高,使得建筑业成为了当前我国节能减排的重点领域之一。在基于STIRPAT模型估计的基础上,采用情景分析法,主要研究建筑业单位增加值能耗年均增长率与建筑业碳排放量、减排效果和峰值出现时间的关系。最后指出,提高建筑业相关的技术水平,减少不必要的能源消耗,以降低建筑业单位增加值能耗,是减少建筑业碳排放的有效途径。

Due to its rapid development and high energy consumption,the construction industry has become one of the important areas for the current energy conservation and emission reduction in China.Based on the STIRPAT model and with scenario analysis,this paper is mainly concerned with the relationship between the average annual growth rate of added value per unit of energy consumption and construction industry carbon emissions,emission reduction as well as peak time.Finally,the effective ways are given for reducing carbon emissions in construction industry such as improving the construction industry techniques,and reducing unnecessary energy consumption so as to reduce the energy consumption of added value per unit.