加入WTO后人民币汇率走势分析

加入 ＷＴＯ对人民币汇率走势的影响是目前金融界关注的焦点之一。本文首先对美元、日元、欧元等几种主要国际货币的发展趋势进行了分析，这几种主要国际货币的走势波动将影响我国未来国际收支的状况，进而影响人民币汇率的稳定。基于对我国目前宏观经济状况的分析，对未来国际收支的预测，以及对人民币贬值的正面、负面效用分析，本文最后指出，我国加入 ＷＴＯ后，人民币汇率仍将保持基本稳定。

The influnce of joining in WTO to the exchange rate of Renminbi is the focus of our economic civcles. We firstly analyze the tendancy of the exchange rate of three main international currencies because their fluctuation will influnce our future balance of international payment and the stability of Renminbi. After analyzing the current macroeconomic situation of our country and forecasting our future balance of international payment and valuing the efficiency of the depreciation of Renminbi, we point out that Renminbi will remain stable even after China becoming a namber of WTO.