中国进出口贸易对经济增长方式转变的影响分析

Empirical Study on Relation of China Import and Export Trade and Economic Growth

文章基于中国1980-2010年GDP和进出口的相关数据对中国进出口贸易和经济运行的轨迹进行分析,测算了外贸依存度、贡献率和拉动度三个指标。运用协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验方法对中国进出口贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。结果表明中国经济增长与出口之间是正相关的关系,出口增长对经济增长具有明显的促进作用:出口每增长1%,中国GDP将增长约0.714%;同时,经济增长与进口之间也是正相关的关系,弹性为0.0286,进口每增长1%,中国GDP将增长约0.0286%。因此,可以看出中国进出口贸易的增长都促进经济的增长。

Based on the data of China GDP and import export in 1980-2010,this paper analyzes the operating path of China trade and economy,and measures the influence of three indicators,dependence on foreign,contribution rate and pulling degree,on China foreign trade and economic growth.And then,the paper uses cointegration and Granger causality test methods to empirically analyze the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in China.The results show that： There is a positive correlation between China＇s economic growth and exports that export growth has a significant role in promoting on economic growth： every 1% increase exports,China＇s GDP will grow by about 0.714%;the same time,there is also a positive correlation between China＇s economic growth and imports that import growth has a significant role in promoting on economic growth： every 1% increase imports,China＇s GDP will grow by about 0.0286%.Therefore,we can see that China＇s foreign trade growth have contributed to economic growth.