1998-2010年江苏省引进FDI与碳排放的相关性评估

The Assessment on the Correlation between the Scale of FDI and Carbon Emissions in Jiangsu Province from 1998 to 2010

概述了1998-2010年江苏省引进FDI的规模和结构特征,应用Kaya恒等式评估了1998-2010年江苏省的年度碳排放量。应用单整检验和EG两步检验法,证明了江苏省FDI规模与碳排放量存在协整关系。利用格兰杰因果检验,证明了滞后期为1-3时,江苏省FDI变化是碳排放量变化的原因,但碳排放量变化不是江苏省FDI变化的原因。从产业结构看,江苏省第一产业FDI的变化与碳排放变化不存在因果关系;江苏省第二产业FDI的变化从长期看是碳排放量变化的原因;不论是短期还是长期,江苏省碳排放量的变化均是第三产业FDI规模变化的原因。

This article outlines the size and structure characteristics of FDI in Jiangsu province from 1998 to 2010 and assesses the annual carbon emissions of Jiangsu province during this period by the application of the Kaya identity.By using single-integration test and EG two-step test,this paper proves that the correlation relationship exists between the scale of FDI and carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province,and indicates that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between them.Granger causality test proves that when lag period is 1-3,the change of FDI is the cause of carbon emission change in Jiangsu province,otherwise it is not established.The inspection conclusions of FDI effects of carbon emissions on the three industries in Jiangsu Province are that： there is no causal relationship between changes of FDI of the primary industry and the variations of the carbon emission.In the long run,FDI’s changes of the secondary industry in Jiangsu Province are the causes of carbon emissions changes.Whether in the short-term or long-term,the changes of the carbon emissions in Jiangsu province is reason for FDI scale of the tertiary industry to change.In the eight high-energy-consuming industries in Jiangsu Province,the correlation coefficient between carbon emissions and FDI scale of the corresponding industry is greater than 0.69.Among them,the correlation coefficients for chemical materials industry,chemical products manufacturing industry,the paper industry and paper products industry are greater than 0.8,indicating the high correlation between carbon emissions of high energy-consuming industries and FDI scale of the corresponding industry in Jiangsu Province.