欧元对德国进出口的非对称影响——基于欧盟国家面板数据的分析

The Euro's Asymmetrical Effect on Germany's Import and Export:An Analysis Based on Panel Data from the EU Countries

与传统的认为因欧洲货币统一有利于降低交易成本从而增加了欧元区国家贸易量的观点不同,本文通过运用引力模型分析,发现欧元对德国进口和出口的影响是不对称的,它确实大大增加了德国的出口额,但是并没有显著增加其进口额,甚至还减少了进口额,这使得德国对欧盟贸易获益。之所以出现这种状况,是因为统一的货币安排使得德国货币实际上存在着贬值效应。欧洲货币统一对德国是有利的。

Different from the traditional points that the currency union increases the trade among the EU countries by decreasing the transaction cost and uncertainty,we find with the gravity model that the Euro did not significantly increase or decrease Germany＇s import volume when it expanded the export volume,which benefited Germany in trade.What happened above is due to the fact that the Euro had a depreciation effect on Germany＇s currency.In other words,the Euro is beneficial to Germany.