基于方差-协方差分量估计的GM(1,1)模型及其应用

GM(1,1) Model and Its Application Based on Variance-covariance Estimation

首先给出了基于灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)传统模型,指出该模型的实质是假设原始数列为独立、等精度观测数据,而事实上,独立且等精度观测对于实际测量难以从严格意义上实现。为此,从平差后得到的改正数入手,探讨基于方差-协方差分量估计的GM(1,1)模型,并将其应用于某变形监测预报,得到了较好的结果。

We firstly give the traditional GM（1,1） based on grey system theory,which is assumed that original data sequence are of mutual independence and the same accuracy.But in fact,it is difficult to seriously carry out the independent and same accurate observation in practical surveying such as deformation monitoring.Therefore,we discusses GM（1,1） based on variance-covariance component estimation through the correction after adjusted and predict observation series in deformation monitoring.The results are good.