中国高新技术产业与经济增长的协整分析

Cointegration Analysis on High-Tech Industries and Economic Growth of China

在分析、回顾高新技术产业与经济增长关系基础上,通过运用协整理论方法对1995年～2009年国内生产总值与高新技术产业工业总产值进行分析可知:国内生产总值与高新技术产业总产值之间存在协整关系,且两者之间的均衡关系对当年非均衡误差调整的修正能力较强;在滞后期为1时,两者存在双向的格兰杰因果关系,在滞后期大于等于2时,存在单项的格兰杰因果关系。这说明,高新技术产业对经济增长有较强的拉动作用。针对这一结论,今后应努力提高高新技术的创新能力,培植高新技术产业的技术创新体系;充分发挥政府的主导作用,加强产、学、研合作;大力引进人才,造就一支多层次、高水平、复合型的人才队伍,促进高新技术产业的快速发展。

According to the analysis and retrospect of the relationship between High-technology Industry and economic growth, this article uses co-integration theory to deal with GDP and total output value of High-technology Industry during 1995 and 2009 and get to this conclusion： co-integration relationship exists between GDP and total output value of High-technology Industry; the equilibrium relationship between them has strong ability in amending the inequality error adjustment in the same year;if the lag is 1 ,the two-way Granger causality exists between them, if the lag is as long as2 or longer than 2, the one-way Granger causality exists between them. The conclusion means that high-tech industry is effective in driving economic growth. In allusion to the conclusion, we should endeavor to enhance the innovation ability of high-tech industry, implant the technical innovation system of high-tech industry, fully display the leading role of the government, intensify the collaboration between production, education and research, make great effort to attract high-quality personnel, foster a contingent, multi-level, versa- tile strong team to accelerate the high-tech industry development speed.