察危机于未发——略论国际核危机管理中的预警

Crisis Detection without Warning——Early Warning of International Nuclear Crisis Management

国际核危机管理是对核危机预警、应对和善后的全过程,预警是核危机管理的首要环节。国际核危机预警通过监控和分析国际核危机的各种征兆信号,捕捉到国际核危机可能爆发的信息,为国际核危机管理争取提前应对的时间,并制订控制国际核危机的预案。一般情况下,国际核危机预警有分析引发国际核危机的直接动因,寻找国际核危机的规律,监测国际核危机爆发征兆这三种路径。

International nuclear crisis management is the process including early warning, response and rehabilitation management. Early warning is the key link of the nuclear crisis management. By supervising and analyzing various symptoms signal of intemational nuclear crisis, the early warning can catch the explode information of nuclear crisis, and plan for solutions of the international nuclear crisis management in advance. The early warning generally includes three kinds of paths like cause, search for laws, monitor explosion phenomenon, which are analyzed directly.