产业结构升级与低碳经济发展的耦合研究

The Coupling Research on Industrial Structure Update and Low Carbon Economy

以碳排放量为焦点,选取1995～2010年我国碳排放量的数据,通过建立双对数模型,分析了GDP增量和单位GDP碳排放量与产业结构比例之间的关系。结果表明,第一、第二产业与第三产业相比耗能高、对国内生产总值贡献率低,提高第三产业比例降低碳排放的同时可实现国民经济的提高,实现产业结构升级和低碳经济发展的耦合。根据模型分析结果,提出了产业结构升级的建议,指出通过发展低碳技术和战略性新兴产业,可促进传统企业的转型,实现高碳产业的低碳化。

The paper analyses the relation between the increase of GDP,carbon emission per GDP and industrial structure by establishing double logarithm model based on the data of China＇s carbon emission from 1995 to 2010.The result shows that compared with tertiary industry,the primary industry and secondary industry have more energy consumption and less economic contribution,and improving the proportion of primary industry will realize the coupling of the industrial structure update and low carbon economy.Based on the analysis of model,the paper refers to the advice of industrial structure upgrading,and points out promoting the transformation of traditional industry by developing low carbon technology and new emerging industry.