我国能源消费与经济增长的空间计量分析

Spatial Econometric Analysis of Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China

以空间地理视角,通过空间计量分析,探索了我国31个省市(不含香港、澳门和台湾)能源消费对经济增长驱动作用,并建立包括地区生产总值、能源消耗、劳动力、资本存量与第二产业产值的空间滞后模型与空间误差模型。实证结果表明:经济发展与能源消耗水平存在着明显的地区差异,大部分省市间具有正向相关性,呈现显著的空间集聚;第二产业对经济增长的贡献度在下降,能源对经济增长的拉动作用逐步下降。此外,研究还发现空间误差模型弥补了普通回归分析可能存在的缺陷,更适合进行分析能源消耗与经济增长的空间关系。

This paper studies the relationships between energy consumption and economic growth in 31 provinces of China＇s mainland from the spatial perspective.It designs spatial lag model and spatial error model,which contain gross domestic product,energy consumption,employed labor,capital stock and secondary industry output value.The empirical results show that there is a great difference between 31 provinces on energy consumption and economic growth.The secondary industry＇s contribution to economic growth is declining,and the energy＇s contribution to economic growth is gradually declining too.Furthermore,the paper finds that the spatial error model is more appropriate for analysis of energy consumption and economic growth than OLS model.