金砖四国碳排放库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Carbon Emission Kuznets Curve for BRICs

基于环境库兹涅茨曲线理论,运用1980～2008年的金砖四国的面板数据,利用面板单位根检验、面板协整和面板Granger因果检验等方法,实证分析了金砖四国的碳排放库兹涅茨曲线的存在性问题。结果表明:金砖四国存在碳排放库兹涅茨曲线,金砖四国的人均碳排放拐点已过,经济增长对于碳排放目标的制约总体上已经消除,印度是延缓金砖四国碳排放拐点的一个最重要国家;人均GDP是人均CO2排放的一个单向Granger原因。最后给出了政策建议。

Based on the theory of the environmental Kuznets curve and panel data from 1990 to 2008 in BRICs,the existence of Kuznets curve of per-capita carbon emission is empirically analyzed by using the panel unit root,panel co-integration and Granger test methods.The results show that： there is the Kuznets curve of per-capita carbon emission in BRICs,and the knee point has been exceeded;India is the most important country to delay the achieving of this knee point;per-capita GDP Granger causes per-capita CO2 emission.Finally,some suggestions are presented.