我国6大境外客源市场旅游本底趋势线的建立

Foundation of Tourism Background-Trend-Line of 6 Major Tourism-Source- Markets of China

提出了旅游本底趋势线的概念,并依据1984年～1996年客流量统计数据,建立了日本、美国、英国、德国、法国和澳大利亚6大境外市场来华旅游的本底趋势线;利用本底线延伸的预测功能,预测了6大境外市场未来4年的变化趋势.

The concept of tourism background trend line was put forward in this paper. Based on the statistics data of foreign tourists from 1984a to 1996a, 6 background trend lines were founded by optimization simulated method, which deal with Japan, America, Britain, Germany, Australia and France. As applications, the author forecasts the next 4 years' development trends of above 6 markets with the forecasting function of tourism background trend line.