房地产价格波动经济影响的一般均衡研究

Effects of real-estate price fluctuation on economy:From general equilibrium view

改进了社会核算矩阵(SAM)的跨墒平衡方法,并在此基础上编制了中国2007年SAM.然后运用CGE模型,在一般均衡的视角下,对房地产价格波动的经济影响进行了定量研究.主要发现:房地产价格波动对各宏观经济变量影响显著;各行业产出与房地产价格的变动方向一致,建筑业、重工业、公用事业以及房地产业自身等所受的影响相对较大;房地产价格上涨与下跌使得所有居民的收入都下降,但各收入等级城镇居民所受的影响并不相同,而政府和企业的收入与房地产价格变动的方向一致;总体来看,房地产价格上涨对经济增长的带动效应较大,但相同幅度价格下跌的负面冲击更大.

We first improve the Minimum Cross Entrophy method and construct China SAM （2007）, then by constructing computable general equilibrium model （CGE） , we investigate the impacts of real estate price fluctuation in China from a general equilibrium view. The main findings are： the influence of real estate price fluctuation on the macro economic variables is very evident; the rising and fall of real estate price will cause corresponding increase and reduction in the outputs of all industries including real estate industry. Relatively, the impacts on industries such as construction industry, heavy industry, utilities, and real estate industry itself are greater; both the rising and fall of real estate price will cause the decline of real income in all kinds of households, but their influences on different income class of urban households are different, and income of the government and the enterprise change in same direction with real estate price fluctuation. Overall, although the rising of real estate has a great growth effect on the economy, the adverse impacts of real estate price fall are even greater.