50余年来厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜(El Nino/La Nina)事件对山西省气候影响分析

The influence of El Nino/La Nina events on climate of Shanxi Province

通过搜集整理1956年以来山西省降水和气温资料以及发生的厄尔尼诺(El Nino)/拉尼娜(La Ni-na)事件、分析了降水量、气温及干旱灾害事件与El Nino/La Nina事件之间的关系,研究了El Nino/La Nina事件对山西省气候的影响。结果表明:1956年以来山西省年降水量呈现明显的波动减少趋势,气温呈现明显的波动增加趋势;El Nino/La Nina事件的发生对山西省降水量影响显著,厄尔尼诺年降水量低于正常年降水量48mm,发生干旱灾害的可能性加大,对山西省工农业生产会带来不利影响;拉尼娜年降水量低于正常年降水量16mm,发生干旱灾害事件的可能性减少,对山西省工农业生产的影响较小。El Nino/La Nina事件的发生对山西省气温影响不是很明显,厄尔尼诺年均气温低于正常年均气温0.01℃;拉尼娜年均气温高于正常年均气温0.1℃。

Through collection of the Shanxi rainfall and temperature data and El Nino and La Nina （El Nino （La Nina） / events since 1956, we analyzed the relationship between precipitation, temperature, drought disaster events and El Nino/La Nina events, researched the impact of El Nino/La Nina events on the Shanxi Province climate. Results showed that since 1956 the Shanxi Province annual precipitation has presented the obvious fluctuation reduction tendency, temperature has presented the obvious fluctuations increase tendency, E1 Nino/La Nina events have significant affected on the Shanxi Province precipitation. In E1 Nino years precipitation was below normal annual precipitation by 48mm, the possibility of drought disaster was greater, it brought adverse effects on industrial and agricultural production in Shanxi Province. In La Nina years precipitation was below normal annual precipitation by 16mm, the possibility of drought disaster reduced, it brought little effects on industrial and agricultural production in Shanxi Province. Influence of El Nino/La Nina event＇s on Shanxi Province temperature was not very obvious. In El Nino years annual temperature was below the normal annual temperature by 0.01℃. In La Ni- na year annual temperature was higher than the normal annual temperature by O. 1 ℃.