生态承载力的概念及其研究方法

Concepts and assessment methods of ecological carrying capacity

生态承载力研究是可持续发展科学领域关注的热点问题,是判定可持续发展的重要分析手段,对生态承载力的概念和评价方法的研究有利于可持续发展科学的发展与完善。对国内外相关研究中的生态承载力概念进行了总结,并深入探讨了不同学者对于生态承载力概念达成的共识及存在的分歧,在此基础上提出了生态承载力概念的内涵。依据生态承载力评价的思路,将国内外生态承载力评价方法分为3类,第1类是指标体系评价法,第2类是以能量、物质流为基础的产品周期评价,第3类是综合性评价。上述评价方法在处理复杂系统问题上都有各自的优缺点,需要评价者根据评价目的采用互补的方式对方法进行集成,加强综合集成的方法在生态承载力评价中的应用。最后,结合生态承载力研究的发展趋势,分析了目前生态承载力研究的不足,提出了生态承载力中主动因子与被动因子、生态承载力预测及其与区域规划的结合、经济发展和科技进步对生态承载力的影响、生态承载力方法改进等亟待开展的研究内容。

Ecological carrying capacity（ECC） is a research frontier in the domain of sustainability science,and it also is an important measure to analyze sustainable development.The research of definition and assess method of ECC is beneficial to the development and perfection of sustainability science.The different definitions of ECC were analyzed by abroad and domestic,and the convergences and divergences among these definitions were discussed;based on which,the exact meaning of ECC was summarized.In addition,the methods used in ECC assessment were reviewed,and these methods were classified into three categories according to their assessing process.First is indicators system analysis,second is product life cycle analysis,and third is comprehensive analysis.There are respective weakness and strengths of these methods to deal with complicated system problems,which should be integrated in a mutually compensatory way according to the evaluation purposes to enforce the application of comprehensive integrated method in ECC assessment.Finally,according to the new trends in ECC research,some issues which should receive more attention in the ECC assessment research could be brought forward,such as the active and passive factors in ECC,the coupling between ECC forecast and region planning,the influence to ECC by economy development and science progress,and the improving of ECC methods.