生可生 非常生——我国人口生育发展趋势的细分化研究

Analysis of China's Birth Development Trends

低生育是后计生时期的标志性特征,在当前,我国人口生育已经进入超低生育水平阶段。与人口控制决策因素相伴随的是人口惯性的产生,因此,反映在人口总量上仍然表现为增长趋势,然而事实上,人口的低生育水平已经远远背离了生育更替水平的基本要求。值得关注的是,人口低生育的持续发展,又会给经济、社会与人口安全带来严峻的后果,为此,根据人口的不同背景,实行生育决策细分化,其中包含有差别的生育放开决策,就是势在必行之举。为此,我们总的指导思想是:生可生,非常生。

Low birth rate is one hallmark of post-family policy era.Now China has moved into the stage of rather low birth rate.Decision factors of population controlling are based on population trend.In terms of aggregate population,China＇s population is still on the rise.Nevertheless,low birth rate of population has violated basic requirements of birth cycle.The constant development of low birth rate will bring severe consequences to economy,society and population safety.And therefore,we might use more flexible birth policies according to different background of population.The guiding principle is to bring more flexibility to family policy.