郑汴都市区一次能源消费的碳排放变化及机理

Evolution Mechanisms of Primary Energy-related Carbon Emissions in Zhengzhou-Kaifeng Metropolitan Area

城市发展面临着向低碳生态转型的挑战,探析城市一次能源消费的碳排放变化及机理是郑汴都市区低碳生态化研究的基点。采用LMDI分析法对2000-2009年间郑汴都市区化石能源碳排放变化、2004-2007年间一次能源碳排放与主要农作物碳吸收变化机理进行研究,构建低碳发展判别函数进一步辨析郑汴都市区产业低碳发展的类型与方向。结果发现：郑汴都市区的碳排放量逐年增加,但两市的增长速度与方式有所不同;碳排放量是在经济发展水平与人口规模、能源强度与能源结构、种植结构、播种面积及产出强度等7个因子相互作用下变化的,经济发展水平的提高是促进碳排放增加的显著因素,能源强度、播种面积和产出强度的增加是抑制碳排放的显著因素;郑汴都市区的产业错位发展有利于消减碳排放总量,但多种产业的产能和结构亟待提高与调整。郑汴城市复合生态系统之间的低碳耦合发展路径、各子系统之间的相互作用机理是应继续深入的方向。

Responses to the challenge of global warming include research into scope for adoption of low-carbon approaches to resource use.Urban development is faced the transition to a low carbon eco-city,and evolution mechanisms of urban primary energy-related carbon emissions are the premise and foundation for Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area′s low carbon eco-city research.The paper estimates carbon emissions and its influencing factors in different periods by carbon emission model and LMDI method.The various influencing factors include population size,economic development level,planting structure,crop yields,crop sown area,energy intensity,energy structure and so on.Especially,evolution mechanisms of fossil fuel-related carbon emissions from 2000 to 2009,primary energy-related carbon emissions and major crops carbon sequestration from 2004 to 2007 are explored using LMDI analysis.In addition,the low-carbon development identification function is constructed to choose the further leading industry.The conclusions can be drawn as follows.1） Carbon emissions gradually increase per year in Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area during the study period,with great difference in amount,speed and structure.Specifically,primary energy-related carbon emissions have a great increase while major crops＇ carbon sequestrations increase slowly.Coal-related carbon emissions play an important role in total emissions,and biomass energy-related carbon emissions can not be ignored compared with natural gas and crude oil.Fossil fuel-related carbon emissions and primary energy-related carbon emissions of Zhengzhou are higher than that of Kaifeng,while major crops carbon sequestrations of Kaifeng are higher than that of Zhengzhou.2） Carbon emissions change with the interaction of factors such as economic development level,energy intensity,energy structure,population size,planting structure,crop yields,crop sown area.Economic growth is the most significant effect to promote an increase in carbon emissions.Energy intensity improvement effectively promotes a decrease in carbon emissions.And crop sown area expansion and crop yields increase are significant effect in carbon sequestration with some difference in Zhengzhou and Kaifeng.Because of the data and methods selected in this article,effects of energy structure and planting structure are not very significant.3） The industry′s complementary development is contributed to reduce carbon emissions in Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area,but a variety of industries′capacity and structure needs improving and adjusting.The improvement of energy utilization technology in new industries,the upgrading and adjustment of traditional industries,the update of urban functions has brought new opportunities for low-carbon development in Zheng-Bian metropolitan area.4） Low-carbon urban complex ecosystem is an open complex giant system,and mechanisms on carbon emissions of energy-material-information flow are the direction for further study.It is of significant importance to comprehensively analysis the interactive mechanism among different factors,such as population growth and technological progress,economic development and industrial restructuring,energy intensity and land use change.The ultimate goal is to regulate Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area into a low-carbon eco-city by exploring the carbon emission discipline in built-up areas,expansion areas,and carbon footprint area in Zhengzhou-Kaifeng complex ecosystem.