用时序模拟法评估超高压输电网络运行的可靠性

UHV Transmission System Reliability Evaluation by Time Sequence Monte-Carlo Simulation

在考虑系统不同调度运行方式下负荷的实时变化、线路的检修计划和多重故障、以及母线、变压器的相关故障等情况下，通过时序模拟法模拟系统实际运行状态，以下次事件推进原则调整模拟时钟，用交流潮流对系统进行分析，其结果作为线路过负荷和节点电压越限的判据。并采用灵敏度法调整发电机出力和削减负荷量，避免维数灾难问题。依据算法编制可靠性评估软件。用实例证明算法合理性和可行性。

Under various operating modes of system, the real-time load changes, scheduled overhauls and multi-failures of lines, dependent faults of buses and transformers are considered. A time sequence Monte-Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the real operating status of the system, and a next event moving forward principle is based to adjust the simulative clock. Based on the AC load flow calculation, the overload on lines and the bus voltage beyond limits are indi- cated in this paper. Using the sensitivity method to adjust the output of generators and reduce the relevant loads. the trouble of dimension disaster is successfully avoided. A set of software for evaluating transmission reliability is developed. The rationality and feasibility of the program are proved by practical calculation of a sample transmission system.