基于SINMAP模型的区域滑坡危险性定量评估及模型验证

A SINMAP-Based Quantitative Assessment and Model Verification of Regional Landslide Hazard

利用稳定态水文学理论与无限斜坡稳定性模型,构建分布式斜坡稳定性定量评估模型SINMAP,以坡体滑塌十分发育的陕西省略阳县为试验区,利用Grid DEM提取坡度、流向、地形湿度指数和有效汇水面积等流域地形水文数据,将GIS专题图、遥感数据等作为模型输入数据,获得地表斜坡稳定性分级专题图,实现滑坡危险性定量评估;将模型模拟结果与目前国内最具有权威性的中国县(市)地质灾害调查结果进行对比分析,发现两者在稳定性分级标准划分、滑坡点定性评价、滑坡危险性分区等方面都具有很好的相似性和可比性,说明模型的模拟结果能够客观反映研究区地表滑坡危险性,对可能出现的滑坡具有一定的预测精度。因此,该模型的研究有望为定量分析区域滑坡与环境因子的关系、区域滑坡预测等工作奠定基础。

The regional landslide hazard is evaluated by the factors that affect the stability of the landslope,therefore,the regional landslide hazard evaluation is the landslope stability evaluation.In this paper,Lueyang County,Shaanxi Province is selected as the study area,where the landslide develops typically.By using the quantitative distributed model SINMAP that studies the hillslope stability and 3S（GIS,RS,GPS） technique,the comparison of analogue modeling findings with the most authoritative results of landslide hazard investigation of Chinese cities and counties finds that there are a lot of similarities on the qualitative landslide evaluation,the division of landslide hazard zonation and the criterion of division.It shows that the results of analogue modeling are reliable,and the landslide hazard of the study area are objective,and can give a relative accurate prediction of the potential landslide.Therefore,SINMAP provides a solid foundation for the quantitative analysis of the relationship between study area landslide and the environmental factors and the prediction of the regional landslide.