基于GM（1,1）模型的中国快递行业收入预测分析

An Analysis of Tourism Balance to the Economic Disparities between Different Regions in Liaoning

针对快递行业的特点,运用GM（1,1）模型对中国2003-2010年快递行业的总收入进行模拟,对模拟结果采用了多种方法进行检验,并对未来几年的中国快递收入进行了预测。结果表明GM（1,1）模型能够很好地模拟中国快递行业收入数据,而且具有较高的模拟精度。

With the continuous development of China＇s tourism industry, tourism in the region economy and the advancement of tourism receipts continued to rise. And the effect of tourism economy to the economic disparities between different regions has been paid more and more attention. In this paper, there are six kinds of indexes that used to analyze the regional economic and tourism economic disparity in Liaoning Province. They are range, standard deviation, maximum and minimum coefficient, varia- tion coefficient, Gini coefficient and Centralization Index. On the basis of analyzing the structure differences of six major indexes for measuring regional economic and tourism economic inequality, this paper summarized the evolution of regional economy and regional tourism economy in Liaoning Province. Comparative results show that although the gap of regional tourism economy is larger than that of the regional economic by 2010, but the disparities of them has become smaller and smaller since 2005. In order to measure the role of tourism economy in the regional economic gap clearly, the paper presents an indicator named ＂balance index of tourism economic＂. According to this indicator, regional tourism economy has always played a positive role in balancing the regional economic disparities in Liaoning from 2001 to 2010, but the effect is different in different years. Based on upon analysis, the ＂flying wings＇and＂dragon wagging tail＂ tourism development strategies were suggested in order to make tourism economy playing greater role in shrinking regional economic gap in future.