基于分形插值模型的岩爆预测研究

Prediction of Rock Burst Based on the Fractal Interpolation Model

岩爆等级预测是一个复杂的不确定系统问题,为了准确评价岩爆所处的分类状态,进而为岩爆的防治提供科学依据,提出了基于分形-插值模型的岩爆评价方法.该方法选取影响岩爆评价的3个主要因素,根据分类标准和随机内插方法得到40个标准样本,采用最大似然分类原则确定每个岩爆预测指标的评价分维数,利用加权求和法计算样本的综合评价值,并基于样本综合评价值与经验等级的关系建立分形-插值评价模型.实例分析表明:该模型的评价结果合理、客观,为岩爆预测提供了一种新的研究方法与思路.

Prediction of rock burst is a complex system problem of uncertainty. For the sake of accurate evaluation of the estate of rock burst, providing a scientific basis for the prevention of rock burst, this paper brings forward a prediction method for rock burst based on the fractal interpolation theory. First, three key factors are chosen to construct the model. In addition, because of few standard samples, forty standard samples are produced by the way of stochastic interpolation on the basis of classification standard. Second, by calculating the fractal dimension of single index of rock burst, the fractal dimension exponent evaluation of the index of single rock burst is confirmed with the maximum likelihood classification principle. Third, using the weighted summation value method, the level of the colligate estimation of multi-index of rock burst is calculated and the fractal interpolation evaluation model is established according to the relationship between the value of comprehensive evaluation of the samples and the experience level. Finally, some samples are classified based on the model. The classification results are consistent with those from other methods. Results show that evaluation of the fractal interpolation model is reasonable and objective, and it has better reliability and stability to provide a new research method and idea for rock burst prediction.