“中美国”的终结

The End of Chimerica

在过去十年中,世界经济表现较好的原因是,形成了由中国出口导向型发展和美国过度消费相结合的经济模式。2007～2009年的金融危机可能标志着"中美国"时代的终结。本文将从经济史学者的视角研究这一时期的种种事态发展及其产生的深远影响。中国经济模式在1998～2007将近10年间,某些方面类似于西德和日本第二次世界大战之后的经济模式,即对美的贸易顺差在推动经济增长中发挥了主要作用。然而值得注意的是,中国与这两个国家的经济模式存在着两个关键性差异。首先,中国干预货币的规模是前所未有的,而这对世界经济造成的扭曲也是如此;其次,中国迄今为止仍抵制类似西德和日本升值货币的做法。从中可以推断出,当前的"中美国"形式不可能长久。在20世纪70年代,世界经济的重新平衡有赖于汇率的大幅度调整。但是,中国政府目前采取的汇率调整却无法平衡当前世界经济。

For the better part of the past decade,the world economy has been dominated by a world economic order that combined Chinese export-led development with US overconsumption.The financial crisis of 2007-2009 likely marks the beginning of the end of the Chimerican relationship.In this paper we look at this era as economic historians,trying to set events in a longer-term perspective.In some ways China's economic model in the decade 1998-2007 was similar to the one adopted by West Germany and Japan after World War II.Trade surpluses with the U.S.played a major role in propelling growth.But there were two key differences.First,the scale of Chinese currency intervention was without precedent,as were the resulting distortions of the world economy.Second,the Chinese have so far resisted the kind of currency appreciation to which West Germany and Japan consented.We conclude that Chimerica cannot persist or much longer in its present form.As in the 1970s,sizeable changes in exchange rates are needed to rebalance the world economy.A continuation of Chimerica at a time of dollar devaluation would give rise to new and dangerous distortions in the global economy.