新疆地区对流层中下层及地面温湿变化特征

Characteristics of the Upper and Ground Temperature and Humidity Variations over Xinjiang region

针对新疆地区1969-2009年近40年对流层中下层以及地面温湿变化特征，利用经过质量控制的中国新疆地区14个探空站1969-2009年比湿和温度资料，采用线性回归、滑动t检验等方法对新疆地区温度、湿度变化趋势和突变年进行分析，并用同一时期12个地面站的降水资料对比分析新疆地区降水量的变化特征。结果表明：南疆和北疆500hPa和850hPa高空比湿在1980年中后期均有增加的趋势，2005年后均又发生了由升转降的变化；地面比湿和降水总体均呈显著增加趋势，南疆地区降水在2005年后为持续负距平，与高空比湿变化特征一致；41年期间两个区域的温度变化在对流层中下层和地面都呈显著增加趋势，且地面增温最显著，增温速率随高度增加而降低。北疆和南疆地区500hPa比湿分别在1989年、1985年，南疆850hPa在1986年均发生由降转升的显著性突变，且均在2005年发生由升转降的显著性突变；北疆地区850hPa和两个区域地面比湿均在1986年发生突变，之后显著变湿；北疆和南疆500hPa温度分别在1985年、1986年发生由降转升的显著突变，两个区域850hPa和地面温度均在1996年发生相同突变，显著水平都达到0．01。

In order to study the Variation of the upper and ground temperature and humidity in Xinjiang from 1969 to 2009 ,Based on the temperature and specific humidity data at 14 radiosonde stations in Xinjiang from 1969 to 2009, Variation of the upper and ground temperature and humidity in Xinjiang were analyzed by the means of linear regres- sion method and the abrupt change of air temperature was determined by running t-test method, and a comparison of the annual precipitation data at 12 representative meteorological stations in Xinjiang in the same period was made to analyzed the variation of precipitation. It is showed that specific humidity at 850hPa, 500hPa originally increaseed in the middle and late 1980＇s and had a reverse trend after 2005 in Southem and Northern part of Xinjiang, while ground humidity and precipitation are tending to an obvious increasing trend on the whole. The precipitation of South- ern Xinjiang had a continuous negative anomaly from 2005, which is consistent with variation characteristics of upper air. The temperature in the middle-lower troposphere and the ground had a significant increasing tendency in the past 41 years in the two regions. The rate of the temperature increase decreases as the height increases. The analysis of abrupt change revealed that specific humidity at 500hPa, Northern Xinjiang and Southern Xinjiang had an abrupt change at 1989 and 1985 respectly, at 850hPa in Southern Xinjiang the abrupt change occurred at 1986, the humidi- ty originally descended and then increased, with a significant down-turn at 2005. The specific humidity at 850hPa in Northern Xinjiang, at ground in both region had an abrupt change at 1986. The temperature at 500hPa in Northern Xinjiang and Southern Xinjiang present jumping characteristics with an abrupt year at 1985 and 1986 respectively, others had the same abrupt change at 1996. All the abrupt change had a significant level of 0. 01 in each analysis.