农民收入与地方财政扶持及金融联动分析——来自重庆区县的证据

Analysis on the Financial Linkage Relationship Between Farmers'Income and Local Finance Support——The Evidence from Chongqing Area County

长期以来,地方财政扶持及农村金融发展是农业发展的推动力。运用2007～2009年重庆39个区县的相关数据,探寻重庆区县农民收入与地方农业财政及金融的联动关系,通过双对数线性的多元回归模型分析表明:政府财政支出、金融中介发展水平与农民人均纯收入呈较弱的正相关关系,农业从业人口的数量与农民纯收入的增加呈显著的负相关关系。但重庆的财政政策及金融政策在执行过程中受到农业生产、农村金融机构发展以及农民经济人主体因素的影响而未能达到期望的效果。

Local financial support and financial development have been the key driving force to the development of agriculture.Based on the double logarithm linear regression model and the economic data of Chongqing counties from 2007to 2009, This paper shows that there exists the weak positive correlation between financial expenditure, financial intermediary development level and farmers＇net income and the significant negative correlation between agricultural population and the farmers＇net income increase.It also come to the conclusion that fiscal and financial policies of Chongqing fails to meet the expectation because the execution was disturbed by the factors of agricultural production, development of rural financial institutions and farmers as economic subject.