太阳活动23周上升阶段质子事件的预报分析

An Analysis of Short-Term Prediction of Solar Proton Events in the Ascending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

以２２周太阳活动低年（１９９３－１９９５）质子事件及其对应活动区的综合分析结果为判据，预报２３周太阳活动上升阶段的质子事件．从１９９７年１１月开始到１９９８年１２月，用该方法预报的质子事件共６个，报准３个，不确定一个，虚报１个，漏报１个（太阳背面产生的事件）．本文对用该方法预报的结果进行了分析讨论，并与世界警报中心的预报结果进行了比对，结果表明，该方法对于质子事件的短期预报是有效的．

Six proton events are predicted in the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 23 (1997.111998.12), based on the results of a correlation analysis between the proton events and active regions in the descending phase of Solar Cycle 22 (1993-1995). Of the 6 events, 3 were predicted correctly, 1 was a false prediction, 1 was missed (event on the far side of the solar surface) and the last one has an uncertain status. The predictions of RWC-Beijing and WWA are compared and the result shows that the method of prediction used by us is very effective for the short-term prediction of proton events.