刍议银行集中度与经济增长的关系——基于面板VAR模型的实证分析

A Discussion on the Relationship between Banking Concentration and Economic Growth:An Empirical Analysis based on Penal VAR Model

银行业集中度与经济增长二者间的动态影响关系有待考察。面板向量自回归模型的运用不仅有效地克服分析银行集中度时可能存在的内生性问题,而且通过正交脉冲响应函数以及方差分解,还能够考察银行集中度与经济增长间的动态响应路径和银行集中度对经济增长的贡献度。实证结果表明,在中国现阶段,银行集中度的下降有利于经济的增长。

There still needs an examination of dynamic relationship between banking concentration and economic growth.By using penal VAR model,we can not only effectively overcome the endogenous problems of analyzing banking concentration,but also can examine the dynamic response path between banking concentration and economic growth,and banking concentration＇s contribution for economic growth through orthogonal impulse response function and Variance Decomposition.The empirical result indicates that for the present stage,the decrease of banking concentration is beneficial for the growth of economy.