基于系统动力学的两型社会评价与预测集成模型

The Integrated Model of Prediction and Assessment for the Development of “Two-oriented Society” Based on the System Dynamics

回顾和评述两型社会发展预测及评价现有主要研究方法的基础上,提出了以系统动力学建模为平台,整合不同领域研究方法的湖南省两型社会发展预测及评价集成模型,该集成模型由经济子系统、社会子系统、资源子系统、能源子系统、环境子系统、综合评价子系统组成。通过PSR概念模型分析了该集成模型总体框架和各子系统的相互关系,讨论了子系统的设计思路并给出各子系统系统动力学流图。以湖南为例,采用1990~2009年湖南省统计数据对各子系统中部分重要方程和参数进行了初步测算和检验。还指出该方法相对于其他方法的优势及应用的局限性。

In this study,an integrated model of prediction and assessment based on system dynamics is built for ＂Two-oriented Society＂ development of Hunan Province.This model,integrating the existing prediction and assessment research methods,is composed of 6 sub-modules,economy module,society module,resources module,energy module,environment module and assessment module.The general framework and the interrelations among 6 sub-modules are analyzed through PSR concept model.The design concept of each sub-module is discussed and the system dynamic flow charts of each sub-module are also given in the paper.The important functions and parameters of each sub-module were evaluated with the statistical data of Hunan Province during 1990-2009.In addition,the advantages and limitations of the integrated model were pointed out.