基于灰色-马尔可夫链模型的危险化学品事故预测

Accident Prediction in Dangerous Chemicals Based on the Gray-Markov Chain Model

根据危险化学品伤亡事故的发生受多种灰色因素影响,并且具有较大的随机波动性的特点,提出了运用灰色-马尔可夫链预测模型对危险化学品死亡人数进行预测分析.结果表明,所建立的灰色-马尔可夫链预测模型既能反映死亡人数变化的总体趋势,又能体现数据的波动性特点,其预测精度高于GM(1,1)模型的预测精度,可以较好地应用于危险化学品事故的预测,为该行业的安全管理提供准确的理论依据.

Casualties of dangerous chemicals was affected by a variety of gray factors,and show the random fluctuation characteristics,so a new gray-Markov chain model was proposed and used to predict the death toll in dangerous chemicals.The results show the model can not only reflect the general trend of death roll,but also reflect fluctuation characteristics of the date,its prediction accuracy is higher than that of GM（1,1） model,the model is more suitable for the prediction of the death toll in dangerous chemicals,which can provide an accurate theory for safety management in dangerous chemicals industry.