政府管理效率与跨国公司投资基础设施——来自中国2000～2010年的经验证据

Government Efficiency, Transnational Corporations, and Infrastructure Investments --Evidence from 2000 - 2010 Time Series of China

改革开放30余年来,尤其是在全球金融危机前后,跨国公司对华投资发生了深刻的变化。本文通过大量的统计资料分析,揭示了跨国公司投资我国基础设施建设在数量、结构及模式上的变迁情况,度量了跨国公司在我国投资基础设施行业中存量和流量变化,并运用协整检验和向量误差修正模型对2000～2010年外商在华投资基础设施的数据进行检验。结果表明,跨国公司投资基础设施与政府管理效率之间存在长期均衡关系,这意味着建立高效率和服务型政府及稳定开放的经济环境对刺激外商投资基础设施建设是至关重要的;从短期来看,两者属非动态均衡关系,政府管理效率对跨国公司投资基础设施存在一定的滞后性。

Significant diversification on mtrastructure investments Irom transnauonal Corporations（TNCs） have occurred in the last three decades since reform and .opening up in China, especially around the recent global crisis. On Nov 9th 2008, China launched a four-trillion-RMB stimulus package in infrastructure construction to boost domestic demand. Foreign companies are also encouraged to invest in China＇s top 10 revitalize industries in- cluding advanced manufacturing, high-tech industries, new energy industries, construction etc. in the foreign in- vestment of industrial-oriented policy conducted by the Ministry of Commerce. It directly indicates China＇s positive attitude for FDI in infrastructure investments because such investments of TNCs are useful complement for public in- vestments which have declined in recent years, and they can improve the advanced technologies and management experience in order to promote China＇s industrial upgrading as well, However, what are the main factors to affect TNCs invest in infrastructure sector？ What is the relation between government management efficiency and infrastruc- ture investment？ We reveal an evidence to answer these questions by conducting an empirical study on co-integra- tion and vector error correction model for 2000 - 2010 foreign investment in China. First of all, we review the related papers on the infrastructure investment and know that the most papers have researched the economic factors, which can attract TNCs to invest in infrastructure, but few mentioned the govern- ment factors. Thus this paper chooses government efficiency to exam the degree of affection on TNCs infrastructure investment. Then we introduce the current situation of TNC investments in China including the proportion and con- stitute of foreign investment in Chinese infrastructure. Secondly, we establish empirical model and test the assumption-how governmental administrative capability, corruption perception, administrative efficiency, and the government opening up degree affect TNCs investing in in- frastructure. The explanatory variables are the amount of foreign infrastructure investment and several sections are selected as the indicators such as electricity, gas and water, transportation, post and telecommunications etc. we use these indicators for variables and conduct logarithmic processing. By conducting time series stationary test, the first-order difference sequence on the 5% significance level is stationary. After that step, we achieve long-term re- lationship between explanatory and dependent variables with co-integration and vector error correction model. All these empirical tests support our assumption. Finally, the study shows 4 conclusions ： （ 1 ） The governmental administrative capability is significant positive effect on the infrastructure investment conducted by TNCs. Because government and companies have a common goal, the higher the management level, the more TNCs will to invest in the infrastructure. （2） It is noted that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the index of corruption perception and multinational investment in in- frastructure, while in the short term there is an unusual effect. The crowding-out effect appears probably due to rent-seeking and rent-creating by TNCs and government respectively. （3） The level of administrative efficiency is an important factor to explain TNCs to invest in infrastructure without considering the level of economic development and exchange rate factors. This means that it is an essential stimulating way by establish efficient government to im- prove foreign investment in infrastructure. （4） The degree of governmental opening up could significantly positively impact investment in infrastructure from TNCs. The higher opening up level would not only create a fair competitive environment, but also reduce exchange rate risks of the investments from TNCs, while in the view of the formulation of the regulatory framework, implementation of laws and regulations and contracts selection and assistance provision will become more internationalized and in favor of resolving disputes in the investment process.