DSGE模型框架下我国货币政策规则的比较分析

Comparative Analysis of China's Monetary Policy Rules Under the Framework of DSGE Models

货币政策规则是中央银行为了保持通货膨胀和产出稳定并使经济更快发展所使用的货币政策的指导原则。目前,通行于各个国家的货币政策规则主要有利率规则和货币供应量规则。过去一段时间以来,西方发达国家都已逐渐从货币供应量规则过渡到利率规则,而在我国不管是应用方面还是理论研究方面,对于哪一个货币政策规则更适合我国始终都还没有定论。因此,本文试图在DSGE模型的框架下,对我国的货币政策规则进行比较分析。结果得出,相比于货币供应量规则,利率规则下:(1)货币政策更有效;(2)技术冲击所引起的通货膨胀和产出波动更小;(3)技术冲击对通货膨胀和产出的影响更短暂。因此,研究得出,我国更适合使用利率的货币政策规则。

Central banks use monetary policy rule to keep the inflation and output stable and economy development faster.Currently,there are mainly two monetary policy rules access to each country＇s monetary policy authority,the interest rate rule and the money supply rules.For past several years,developed countries have gradually transited from the money supply rule to interest rate rule.But in china,whether of the application and theoretical studies,there is not a consensus which monetary policy rule is more suitable for use.Therefore,this paper attempts to give a comparative analysis of China＇s monetary policy rules under the framework of DSGE model.The results obtained from the analysis contain： under the interest rate rules,（1） monetary policy is more effective;（2） technology shock makes inflation and output fluctuate less serious;（3） technology shock＇s impact on inflation and output is more short-lived.Therefore,it is more suitable to use interest rate monetary policy rule in China.