冻融循环条件下沥青混合料的耐久性及其GM(1,N)预测

The Durability of Asphalt Mixture Under Freeze-thaw Cycle and Its Multi-variables Grey Forecast Model

通过沥青混合料空隙率及冻融前后混合料劈裂抗拉强度变化进行冻融循环条件下沥青混合料的耐久性能研究,并采用灰色系统理论中GM(1,N)模型对冻融循环条件下沥青混合料的耐久性能进行预测。试验结果表明:沥青混合料耐久性因素中的空隙率和劈裂抗拉强度与冻融次数之间有良好的相关性,在冻融循环条件下,空隙率随着冻融次数的增加而明显增加,劈裂抗拉强度随着冻融次数增加显著减小。建立的GM(1,N)灰色预测模型能够较好地预测冻融循环条件下沥青混合料的空隙率和劈裂抗拉强度,且计算结果与试验数据吻合较好,表明在冻融循环条件下沥青混合料耐久性研究中引入灰色系统理论是可行的;通过GM(1,N)多因素预测,可以大量减轻试验工作量以及降低试验成本。

The porosity and splitting strength of asphalt mixture under freeze-thaw cycle are studied,and GM（1,N） model in grey system theory is established to predict the durability of asphalt mixture under freeze-thaw cycle.The results show that there is a good correlation between the porosity and the splitting strength in the durability factors of asphalt mixture.The value of the porosity increases with the increasing of the freeze-thaw times,and the value of the splitting strength decreased with the increasing of the freeze-thaw times.The GM（1,N） grey forecasting model can predict the porosity and the splitting strength well,and the calculated results agree well with the experimental data.Therefore,it is feasible to introduce the gray system theory in the prediction study of the durability of asphalt mixture.By GM（1,N） multi-factor model,the workload and the cost of the test can be reduced greatly.