制度水平与双边股权资本流动--基于Heckman两阶段模型的分析

Institutions and Bilateral Equity Capital Flows:Based on the Heckman Two-stage Model Analysis

本文运用66个国家2001-2009年的双边股权资本流动数据,采用Heckman两阶段模型考察了制度水平对双边股权资本流动的影响。实证研究表明,母国和东道国的制度水平对股权资本投资决策和投资规模均具有显著的促进作用,但母国的制度水平起着决定性作用,一系列的稳健性检验也证实了制度水平对双边股权资本流动的作用是稳健的。此外,本文的研究还发现,传统的直接运用引力模型对双边资本流动的估计是有偏的,而Heckman两阶段估计是无偏估计。

We use bilateral portfolio equity flows of 66 countries from 2001 to 2009 to analyze the effects of institutions on bilateral portfolio equity flows. The empirical analysis shows that the institutions of source and host country play an important role on investment decisions and the investment scale; however, source country＇s institutions are more important. A series of robust tests also confirm the conclusion. In addition, we also find that the traditional methods which directly use the gravity model to estimate bilateral capital flows are biased, and Heckman twostage model is valid.