IPO定价与公司内含价值——基于常山药业的案例研究

IPO Valuation and Company's Intrinsic Value:A Case Study of Changshan Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd.

如何对IPO公司准确定价是学术界和实务界广泛争议的热点话题。IPO定价准确性的评价依赖于对公司内含价值的判断,选择不同的标准确定公司的内含价值会得出IPO定价过高或过低的不同结论。本文应用可比公司法对常山药业的内含价值进行估计,使用四种可比公司乘数计算的结果表明公司实际发行价格高于公司内含价值,这意味着公司的发行价格存在一定程度的高估现象。与同期证券分析师对常山药业发行价格预测的平均估价水平相比,结果发现多数证券分析师由于过度乐观而高估公司内含价值。本文研究结果表明可比公司法具有计算简单、可操作性强等特点,不仅有助于一级市场中不同投资者对IPO公司的内含价值做出合理的估计,而且可以为二级市场交易中小投资者形成正确的投资决策提供依据,减少超额投资损失。

IPO valuation is difficult for both underwriters and academic researchers. Whether an IPO is priced correctly or not relies on an accurate assessment of intrinsic value, and different cri- teria for the assessment will lead to different conclusions. This paper uses the comparable firm approach to evaluate the intrinsic value of Changshan Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. By making use of four comparable company multipliers, it finds that the actual issue price is higher than the company＇s intrinsic value, which means that there is overestimation in the issue price of the company. Comparing the result with securities analysts~ average valuation, it suggests that there is overoptimism in analysts~ forecasts. This research shows that the comparable firm ap- proach can be easily applicable in the assessment process and provide sound investment advice for investors in the primary market. For outside investors in the secondary market, intrinsic value computed by the comparable firm approach could help them avoid excess losses caused by overop- timism.