中国2008年肺癌发病、死亡和患病情况的估计及预测

Estimates and prediction on incidence, mortality and prevalence of lung cancer in China in 2008

目的估计2008年中国肺癌发病、死亡和患病情况，并预测今后20年肺癌发病数和死亡数。方法根据中国36个肿瘤登记点的数据以及全国第三次死因调查（2004--2005年）的结果，估计2008年肺癌发病、死亡和患病情况，并预测2010、2015、2020、2025和2030年肺癌发病数和死亡数。结果2008年中国肺癌新发病例数约为52．2万，占所有恶性肿瘤发病例数的18．5％，世界人口标化发病率为33．5／10万，居全部恶性肿瘤之首。2008年肺癌死亡病例数约为45．3万，占所有恶性肿瘤死亡例数的23．1％，世界人口标化死亡率为28．7／10万，居全部恶性肿瘤之首。2008年中国15岁以上成年人肺癌5年患病数约为48．8万，占所有恶性肿瘤5年患病数的10．6％，5年患病率为45．6／10万，居全部恶性肿瘤的第4位（低于胃癌、乳腺癌和结直肠癌）。中国肺癌高发人群为45岁以上人群，尤其是男性，15岁以后男性肺癌发病率和死亡率均超过女性。今后20年中国肺癌的发病数和死亡数均将呈现上升趋势。结论肺癌是我国人群首位癌症，其发病和死亡情况在未来20年将越来越严重，重点防控人群为45岁以上中老年人，尤其是男性人群。

Objective To estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence rates of lung cancer in China, in 2008. Methods Data from 36 cancer registries and the Third National Death Survey in China （2004-2005） was used to estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence rates of lung cancer in China in 2008. Mathematical models were used to predict the lung cancer incidence and mortality rates in the next 20 years. Results In 2008, the incidence of lung cancer was 522 050 （18.5% ） with the incidence rate as 33.5/100 000, which ranked the first among all the cancers. Mortality of lung cancer in China was 452 813 （23.1%） with the mortality rate as 28.7/100 000, which also ranked the first among all the cancers. The 5-year prevalence rate of lung cancer in China was 487 815 （10.6%） with the proportion as 45.6/100 000, which ranked fourth among all the cancers. Lung cancer happened more frequently among people older than 45 years, particularly in males. Our data on prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years. Conclusion Lung cancer was the leading cause for both incidence and mortality of all cancers in China and both kept increasing. The key population fell in those older than 45 years, particularly males, that should be under special prevention and control for lung cancer.