发展中国家现代服务业与税收政策：理论模型与经验分析

Modern Service Industry and Tax Policy in Developing Countries:A Theoretical Model and an Empirical Study

我国现代服务业发展是近期研究的热点问题。对准特定要素模型做适当的拓展,能够较好地解释发展中国家现代服务业的形成条件。根据该模型,发展中国家的现代服务业发展一般会遇到产出和技术进步停滞的"瓶颈"期,这时需要通过适度外资的引入和税收政策支持来助其进入新快速发展期。基于该模型,本文利用我国1998-2010年31个省(市)的面板数据,对税收政策和外资影响生产性服务业进行经验分析。研究表明,我国生产性服务业正处于"瓶颈"期,税收政策运用和适度外资引入都对现代服务业发展具有推进作用。因此,正在进行的现代服务业税改试点、增值税扩围和资源税改革恰逢其时,值得重视。

Research related to modern service industry in China has drawn a lot of attention. This paper adopts a quasi-specific factors model to explain the development of modern service industry in developing countries. The authors point out that there may be a ＂bottleneck＂ phase during the development of modern service business. Also, this paper suggests inflow of foreign direct investment and tax preference could help developing countries skip this phase. Based on panel data from 31 provinces of China from 1970 to 2007, the authors check empirically the effect of FDI and tax policy on producer services. The result shows that China is in the trap of ＂bottleneck＂ phase. This shows that the reform of services tax, VAT and resource tax is just in time.