技术进步、资本深化、产业升级与大学生就业——2001～2010年中国省级面板数据分析

Technology Progress,Capital Deepening and Industry Upgrading and the Employment of College Graduates:An Empirical Study on 2001～2010 Panel Data of the Chinese Provinces

大学生就业问题的实质不是就业数量问题,而是就业质量问题。大学生就业与生产效率关系密切,因此文章将技术进步、资本深化和产业升级3个效率变量作为主要研究变量引入大学生就业模型,并对2001～2010年中国省级面板数据进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)总体而言,大学生就业比重与技术进步、资本深化及产业升级之间存在着正向关联性;(2)技术进步对大学生就业的拉动效应在时间轴的表现强于省级截面轴;(3)大学生就业对提高资本深化产出效率意义重大,但资本深化拉动大学生就业的实际效果不够显著;(4)产业升级带动大学生就业不能独立于技术进步和资本深化,并且与区域生产效率正相关。

Central to college graduates' employment is not the quantity but the quality of employment.Since college graduates' employment is closely related with the economic efficiency,this paper introduces technological progress,capital deepening and industry upgrading as the main variables into the College Graduate Employment Model.Based on 2001～2010 panel data of China's provinces,the empirical analysis proves the following: 1) Generally,there is a positive correlation between College Graduate Employment and Technology Progress,Capital Deepening or Industry Upgrading;2) The pulling effect of Technological Progress on the Graduate Employment along the timeline is stronger than it among the provinces;3) The Graduate Employment is of great significance to improve the Capital Deepening output efficiency,but the practical effect of Capital Deepening on stimulating the employment of college students shows little significance;4) The impact of Industrial Upgrading on Graduate Employment is not independent of the Technological Progress and Capital Deepening,and it has a positive correlation with the regional production efficiency.