人口结构、城镇化与碳排放——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究

Population Structure,Urbanization and CO2 Emission:An Empirical Study Base on Cross-country Panel Data

文章基于美国、中国、日本、英国等9国1961～2010年的面板数据对人口年龄结构、城镇化与碳排放之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明,人口规模、人均GDP、二氧化碳排放强度、化石能源占能源消费总量的比重及人口结构与全球碳排放显著相关。此外,人口城镇化率与碳排放的关系呈倒U形,即在人口城镇化的早期会促进二氧化碳的排放,但随着城镇化的进一步扩大则会抑制碳排放;而人口的年龄结构,尤其是人口的老龄化程度对碳排放量的影响则具有U形的特点,即在人口老化的初期由于老年人群的消费模式会减少碳排放,但当人口老龄化进一步加剧后,老年人对医疗护理等方面的需求增多,以致需要更多的经济活动支持这部分开支,因而会造成碳排放的增加。

This paper makes an empirical analysis of the relation between population structure,Urbanization and Carbon Emission based on cross-country panel data.The following conclusions are made.Population size,per capita GDP,urbanization rate,rate of fossil energy in total energy consumption,CO2 intensity and population structure have significant effects on carbon emissions.Especially,the results show that there exists non-linear relationship among the urbanization rate,population structure and carbon emission.With urbanization,the carbon emissions follow an U-shaped.Our model also shows that there is an inverted U-shaped relation between population ageing and carbon emissions.