气候变化与人类活动对博斯腾湖入湖径流影响的定量分析

Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change and Human Activities Impact the Inflowing Runoff of Bosten Lake

【目的】研究气候变化和人类活动对新疆博斯腾湖流域的影响,将有助于提高气候变化条件下对水文过程的认识,对探讨流域资源的综合开发利用和开展建设节水型社会等都具有重要意义。【方法】基于博斯腾湖流域49年(1960～2008年)的入湖流量、温度、降水和大山口径流资料,利用Mann-Kendall秩次相关法进行趋势检验,同时应用滑动T检验及YAMAMOTO检验信噪比突变点检测方法对入湖径流量近49年的实测径流量进行突变点分析。【结果】研究发现流域降水、温度和大山口径流量增加趋势显著,而入湖径流量呈现不显著的增加趋势;1960～2008年间有两次突变发生,分别在1973年和1987年;将1973年之前作为基准期,并以之为界分为两部分,利用1960～1972年资料建立气候因子与径流量的多元回归关系,同时利用1973年之后的气象数据代入该关系式就能得到天然情况的径流序列,进而定量分离气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响并评估其强度。分析表明,人类活动对博斯腾湖流域的入湖径流量的影响强度呈增加趋势。【结论】为保证流域农业生态环境和入湖径流的稳定及可持续发展,应合理分配地表水资源,减少人类活动对地表径流的影响,确保入湖径流量。

【Objective】To clarify the effects of climate change and human activities on the Bosten Basin in the Northwest China is helpful for understanding the hydrological processes and water resource management.It is also important for the resources utilization and water-saving in this basin.【Method】Materials of lake inflowing,temperature,precipitation and runoff in the Dashankou（49 years） were analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation method,moving T-test and YAMAMOTO signal-noise ratio test methods,【Result】Results showed that change of precipitation,temperature and runoff in the upper reaches of the Kaiduhe River（Dashankou station） increased significantly,while the inflowing runoff of the lake increased a little.There were two step changes points occurred during 1960-2008,one appeared in 1973 and the other in 1987.The 49-year time series was divided into two parts by the year 1987.Multiple regression equation for the climate factors and runoff was founded by the data in 1960-1972.Meanwhile,data after 1973 were used to get the natural runoff by the mentioned multiple regression equation.And then,the effects of the climate change and human activities were quantified partitioned.Effects of human activities on the inflowing runoff increased in the past years.【Conclusion】Better management of the surface water resource and decreasing the effects of human activities were necessary to make sure the enough inflowing runoff of Bosten Lake,in order to protect the ecological environment,and make sustainable development of agricultural production possible and water resource sustainable development.