铁矿石国际贸易价格机制及调控策略研究

A Study on Pricing Mechanism for Iron Ore Trade and Corresponding Operating Measures

本文从铁矿和钢铁生产特征出发,基于产业竞争理论探索铁矿石供需的特殊规律和价格机制,并以供需曲线拐点区分其弹性区间和市场状态。得出的结论是,在供需公共弹性域内,铁矿石贸易遵循市场机制形成价格;在该区域外,处于买方或卖方市场状态,市场定价机制失效,优势一方易于操控价格。实证认为我国钢铁业过度膨胀是卖方市场的成因,也是铁矿石价格上升的主要推动力,涨价预期的自我实现起增强作用。调控铁矿石价格的关键是改变铁矿石的卖方市场状态,通过实施遏制进口、投资海外采矿、"扶小抑大"和发展转型等互补措施,让供需落入公共弹性域内,再让市场机制自发调控价格。如此有效调控,铁矿石周期预期价格三年内可以降至85美元/吨。

This paper proposes the special law and the pricing mechanism of supply and demand,with the elastic range and the market cases divided by the curve infection points of them,according to Micheal Porter of industry competition theory and the production characteristics of mining and steelmaking.It leads to the conclusions that the justified price of the trade would be formed by market mechanism only if they are all in the elastic range both supply and demand,and the pricing mechanism loses its effectiveness and the price is easily distorted by the competition superiority side,due to the market being a buyer＇s or a seller＇s beyond the range.It is demonstrated that our excessive expansion of the steelmaking is the cause of forming the sellers＇ market by,also is the main driving force of rising in the price,promoting with self-fulfilling market expectation.The key of operating price is to alter the sellers market case,to fall the supply and the demand in the elastic range,to manipulate spontaneously the price based on market mechanism with the aid of implementing some complementary measures such as curbing imports,investing overseas mining,supporting small when large and developing transition.85$/t could be expected after three years by such effectively regulated triennium in line with its period