平均增量成本法在未动用储量经济评价中的应用

Application of average increment cost method in economic evaluation of nonproducing reserves

未动用石油地质储量是油田制定年度开发部署、中长期开发规划方案的基础。在当前勘探难有较大突破的情况下,已探明未动用储量是油田最直接、最现实的后备储量。评估已探明未动用储量的开发经济效益及优选区块,都能为产能建设提供经济有效的储量资源。通过未动用储量经济优化技术的研究,在方法上突破了原有的经济评价方法,采用世界银行推荐的平均长期增量成本法(AIC),对未动用储量进行效益评价,克服了现金流评价方法预测参数多、预测期长及预测风险大的不足,为新区产能建设、投资决策提供了技术支持。

Nonproducing reserves are the basis of drawing up the annual development deployment and medium term and long term development planning. Proved nonproducing reserves are the most direct and the most practical candidate reserves under the condition that the current exploration acquires a big breakthrough. The economic assessment of proved nonproducing reserves ishelpful to select the most profitable block, which can provide economic reserves resource for deliverability construc, tion. Through the optimum study of nonproducing reserves, a breakthrough of original economic evaluation is obtained in method in this paper. The economic evaluation of nonprodueing reserves is conducted through the use of the long-run average increment cost method recommended by World Bank. Multiple forecasting parameters, long forecasting term and big forecasting risk in cash flow evaluation are avoided, which provides a technical suppo~＇t for deliverability construction and investment decision in new area.