大射程高弹道反舰导弹威胁概率计算方法

A Calculation Method of Threat Probability's about Long Range and High Trajectory Anti-ship Missile

在导弹飞行试验中,为了防止导弹在故障情况下威胁航区周围保护目标,试验方案设计时必须进行飞行试验安全分析计算,以确保故障弹对保护目标的威胁概率小于一定的安全标准。对反舰导弹故障模式进行了归纳总结,对各种故障模式下的导弹落点散布进行了分析,针对某一特定理论弹道,进行了故障弹威胁概率密度计算,通过对计算结果分析,说明该方法的可行性和正确性。

In order to prevent the trouble missile threatening the other protected target,the safety analysis and calculation of the flying test must be carried.First the trouble modes of anti-ship missile are summed up in the paper,and then the distributions of the missile point of fall under different trouble modes are analyzed.According to a provided ballistic trajectory,the calculation of the threat probability density is carried out and the result of the calculation proves the correctness and feasibility of the method.