关于我国碳排放量及影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis to the Influence Factors on Carbon Emission in China

采用加权最小二乘法与向量自回归方法构建了在低碳经济环境下我国碳排放量及其影响因素之间关系的对比性实证分析模型,并进一步利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解探索影响系数大小和时期变化规律。研究表明,一方面,我国碳排放量与其影响因素之间存在一种长期均衡稳定的关系,其中最重要的因素是人均GDP、能源效率和产业结构,其次是人口数量和人均收入;另一方面,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解得出我国碳排放量对人均GDP、能源效率和产业结构的冲击反应比较敏感,而对人口数量和人均收入水平随时期变化的响应则比较稳定,各变量影响系数在短期和长期存在明显差异。

By using of WLS（weighted least squares） and vector self-regression methods,the author of this paper manage to construct a comparative empirical analysis model about the relation between carbon emissions and its influence factors on condition of low-carbon economy in China.Furthermore,it applies impulse response function and variance decomposition to explore the influence coefficient size and period change rule.Research shows that：on the one hand,there is a long-term equilibrium and stable relation between the Chinese carbon emissions and their influence factors.One of the most important factors is per capita GDP,energy efficiency and industrial structure,next is the population and per capita income.On the other hand,through the impulse response function and variance decomposition,it is quite sensitive to the carbon emission to per capita GDP,energy efficiency and industrial structure in China,but it is relative stable to population and per capita income level with the response of the period.The influence coefficient to these variables differs in period length.