中国上市公司现金股利决策模型

Decision-making models for cash dividend policies for Chinese listed companies

该文从是否现金分红和现金股利支付水平2个维度,建立公司现金股利决策模型,分析确定影响中国沪深两市A股上市公司现金股利政策的因素。2001-03中国证监会再融资政策的调整,显著提高了上市公司现金分红的意愿,现金股利已成为中国上市公司利润分配的主要形式。公司留存收益的比例越高,则现金分红的可能性越大,支持了股利的生命周期理论。而从现金分红公司的股利支付水平来看,盈利水平越高,成长性越好的公司,现金股利的支付率却越低,其原因在于中国部分优质上市公司为达到再融资的监管要求而勉强分红,从而导致了中国A股市场现金股利总额占净利润总额的比例偏低。

Data for listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges was used to analyze the factors contributing to the propensity for cash dividend distributions and the cash payout ratio of Chinese listed companies.Regulatory changes in the CSRC refinancing policy significantly increased the listed companies＇ propensity to pay cash dividends.Cash dividends have become the major channel for profit distributions in the Chinese stock market.Companies with higher retained earnings ratios have higher propensity to pay cash dividends,which supports the life-cycle theory of dividends.However,higher profitability and higher growth rates lead to lower payout ratios suggesting that some high-quality companies choose lower payout ratios to meet regulatory requirements,which may be the major driving force for the low ratio of aggregate cash dividends to aggregate profits in the Chinese stock market.