浙江出口增长波动及影响因素的实证研究

Empirically Study on Zhejiang`s Export Fluctuation and Restricting Factors

文章从要素驱动、成本推动、外源促进和结构优化四个角度,以1990-2009年浙江出口数据作为样本空间,通过构建结构增长模型对浙江出口增长波动的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,推动浙江出口增长波动的关键诱因在于产业结构优化和要素投入冲击,成本和外部资源对出口波动影响较弱。当前,浙江必须减少对传统要素驱动型增长路径的依赖,巩固和深化结构优化型增长模式,并努力开辟效率优先型和创新导向型的出口增长新路径。

Taking the export data of the Zhejiang province from 1990 to 2009 as a sample span,this paper empirically analyzes the factors which influence the Zhejiangs export growth based on the resource,production cost,foreign impacts and export structure.The result shows that the key factors are the structure optimization and factor inputs,the impacts of cost and foreign resource on export fluctuation are weak.Currently,the most urgent task for Zhejiang province is to less depend on export model of factor-driven,consolidate and deepen structural-optimization model,and promote the sustained export growth based on efficiency-priority and innovation-oriented model.