企业财务困境预警及对策研究

A Research on Corporate Financial Distress Early Warning and Countermeasures

为了有效地预警企业财务困境,论文以156家上市公司为研究样本,运用逐步判别分析方法从33个财务比率指标中筛选出6个变量,构建了一个六变量财务困境判别模型。经检验,新建模型对企业财务困境的预测正确率达到93.59%,且具有一定的超前预测能力。企业可以应用该模型及早预警财务困境,及时采取措施防范和应对财务困境。

In order to early warning corporate financial distress effectively,the paper taking 156 listed companies as the study samples,using stepwise discriminant analysis selected 6 variables from 33 financial ratios,and constructed a financial distress discriminant analysis model which included six variables.Upon examination,the overall prediction accuracy of the new model reaches 93.6%,and has certain predictive power in advance.The model can be applied to enterprises for early warning of financial distress,to take timely measures to prevent and respond to financial distress.