展望2012年世界能源形势的“不变”与“变”

World energy outlook for 2012

进入新世纪以来,国际能源形势在国际政治经济体系整体转型过程中呈现六个变化特点。国际政治经济体系转型正带来国际权力的重新分配,国际能源秩序的权力中心也从"一元"(西方发达国家占据主导地位)到"二元"(能源生产国和能源消费国两大联盟各踞两端)再到"多元"(联盟内外国家和非国家行为体的车轴状分布)。这种变化和调整的常态是2012年国际能源形势中的"不变"。2012年影响国际能源形势变化的主要不确定因素是多国大选、中东北非局势、伊朗核危机和欧洲主权债务危机。无论哪种因素,在其酝酿、发酵、变化、发展过程中,政治、经济、金融、军事、外交、社会、宗教的力量都夹杂其中。异常复杂的国际关系,将使中国能源企业对外合作的国际环境变得更加恶劣。走出国门的油气企业必须重新审视政治风险,不断调整国际合作战略,才能适应新时期国内和国际形势变化的需求。

With the overall international political and economic system in transition in the new century,the world energy situation is correspondingly changing and has six features.The transition is resulting in redistribution of international power,from one power center (dominated by developed countries) to two (respectively constituting a 'multi-polar world'--of countries and non-country organizations inside and outside a union).Such constant change and adjustment are a hallmark of the world energy outlook in 2012.Other factors make the world energy situation volatile and unpredictable in 2012,mainly general elections in many countries,the situation in the Middle East and North Africa,the nuclear standoff with Iran and the European sovereign debt crises.Political,economic,financial,military,diplomatic,social and religious forces all play a part in the uncertainty.These risks complicate foreign cooperation by Chinese energy enterprises.