摘要
2011年末以来,伊朗紧张局势不断升级,其背后体现的是美欧等西方国家对中东地区的利益追求和战略控制。未来伊朗局势发展有多种可能,不确定性较大。如果伊朗局势进一步恶化,将导致国际油价面临剧烈波动,拖累世界经济复苏,进而对我国石油供应和经济发展带来较大冲击,我国石油企业亦将受到重大影响,须及早谋划,做好应对准备。建议:在国家层面上,密切跟踪伊朗局势变化,加强危机预警和应对能力;在企业层面上,灵活调整应对策略,努力保证国内油气平稳供应。
Tension with Iran has been escalating since the end of 2011.Behind the tension is westernized countries' pursuit of national interest in and strategic control of the Middle East.There are a number of possible developments in Iran with considerable uncertainty.Worsened tension would trigger sharp increase in international oil prices,which would hurt world economic recovery and also have a dramatic negative impact on China's oil supply and economic development.Chinese oil enterprises would be adversely affected as well.So they should plan and be prepared.They are advised to:track changes in the Iranian situation at the state level,improve the capability for early warning of impending crisis and for coping with it;and adopt flexible alternative measures at the enterprise level to ensure steady supply of domestic oil & gas.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2012年第1期6-10,180,共5页
International Petroleum Economics
